iPod Fans

Rumors swirling around Apple's "Let's Rock" event this coming Tuesday generally focus on an expected fourth-generation iPod Nano (roundier and with a bigger screen), iTunes 8.0, iPhone 2.1 software, Mac OS X support for BluRay, and other tidbits. And whether they reached their goal of 10M sold iPhones in 2008 (or 12.8M, as the case may be).

I hope there will be more surprises than that. And I'm not talking about overhauled MacBooks or spruced up iMacs. I want Apple to roll out a new Apple TV. In fact, I've been delaying setting up a new cable/DVR/HD solution in my new digs because I was sure that Apple would come out with something new. Unfortunately, as I surf the global echo chamber, I see little if any indication that an Apple TV 3.0 is in the works.

Steve Jobs has said that Apple has three lets to their stool - the Macintosh, the iPod, the iPhone - and that they are hoping for Apple TV to become the fourth leg. Well, in all honesty, all the legs are looking pretty solid to me. Except for the fourth one.

This post is my way of saying a prayer that Steve really will rock us this week.

Here's what I am hoping that Apple will announce: a new generation Apple TV that would take the current Apple TV features and add a HD ("over-the-air ATSC") tuner, a Blu-ray player, and a big hard drive with DVR and Time Capsule features. And maybe toss in the ability to buy simple games on the iTunes store, like for the iPhone, making the box also work as a low-end gaming console. But I can live without that last part.

Here's the thing. On February 17th, 2009, old televisions will "go dark". That's the date the FCC has mandated full-power broadcast television stations to switch to DTV (dtv.gov). So this coming holiday shopping season will be the first (and last) that faces an upcoming all-digital year.

Similarly, it will be the first holiday season following a resolution to the next-generation DVD format battles: Blu-ray won.

Add to this the overall lackluster response that Apple TV has received to date, and it would seem that now's a good time to roll out a new shot at the living room.

In fact, adding Blu-ray to the Apple TV was rumored in the NYT back in January at the MacWorld Expo. Instead, Steve announced the iPhone 3G, iPhone 2.0, Apple TV 2.0, Mobile Me, and a bunch of new iPhone apps - altogether not a bad keynote.

A Blu-ray version in January would have made little sense, anyway. It's clearly a consumer product, and overshooting the holiday season is not the way to launch. But more importantly, the HD DVD vs Blu-ray war was only just being decided. Warner Brothers announced that they would not support HD DVD in January (making Paramount look foolish), and were shortly followed by similar decisions by Netflix, Wal-mart, and Best Buy. HD DVD officially cried "Uncle!" in February, when Toshiba surprised everyone with a perfectly clear press release.

By the way, the right format won the war. In a nutshell, the difference between HD DVD and Blu-ray was that HD DVD was trying to re-use older DVD technology to lower the cost of retooling the industry, including allowing for cheaper players. Blu-ray, on the other hand, tried harder to make good use of the possibilities of the new blue-colored laser LEDs that powered both standards, so across the board Blu-ray was a better technology. So in the end, the VHS vs Betamax analogy was flat out wrong: the better technology won the day this time. So much for the theory that Microsoft calls the shots. And the pundits that said "In this kind of battle, the guy who is out there first and cheaper is going to be the winner; the more expensive and later one is going to be the loser"? Wrong, too. (Names omitted to protect the overconfident.)

So what, exactly, should this box look like? Here's my wish list:

• Blu-ray disc player; of course one that can also play DVDs and CDs.
• ATSC tuner. That's a fancy way of saying over-the-air digital TV.
• 500G hard drive (1T optional).
• WiFi.
• DVR capability added to iTunes 8.0.
• Time Capsule functionality, in other words, Time Machine backup.
• Full Safari browser and support for (optional) keyboard.
• Various new and improved options for internet video.
• Support for using the iPhone or the iPod touch as smart remotes.

Of course, all the current Apple TV 2.0 offerings: music, audio and video podcasts, Mobile Me integration, movie and TV show rentals and purchases, photo galleries, YouTube, and AirTunes.

And yeah, no need for CableCard support; let's see a pure Blu-ray and iTunes solution. Dare one wish for a new channel through iTunes of bringing free, advertising-supported digital video? Games would be neat, too, and useful commercial widgets, especially now that the iTunes store pretty much has the infrastructure in place.

It would also be nice if it seamlessly supported iPods and iPhones - so that you technically would not need another computer in the house besides this one.

And full iChat support with a webcam connected to the USB and Bluetooth so that I can voip conference off my TV screen while watching CNN in a box ... ok I'll stop now.

What about pricing? Currently, Apple TV 2.0 sells for $229, Time Capsule sells for $299, and a stand-alone Sony Blu-ray players sells for $229 (and up). And, of course, the Playstation 3 (60G) sells for $499. So Apple should price it at $299, but could probably get away with up to $399 initially.

And the coolest thing of all? If I'm watching a movie with the sound turned way up, it would gently pause when my cell phone rings.

The battle for the digital living room has not been settled yet. After both Sony and Microsoft have mostly fumbled, there is an amazing opportunity here. I'm only hoping Apple will seize it.